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by Michael K. Hayes

In previous posts, this series has outlined the structure of plans, the classification of cities, towns, and villages within recent settlement hierarchies, and the use of different types of urban boundaries in Irish spatial policy.

Building on that foundation, this and future posts examine contemporary policy at the national and regional scales in relation to sustainable urban development. Specific objectives will be assessed against their stated targets and discussed in terms of their effectiveness as planning instruments.

The first policy considered here is National Policy Objective 2, described in the National Planning Framework: First Revision (2025) as: ‘The projected level of population and employment growth in the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly area will be at least matched by that of the Northern and Western and Southern Regional Assembly areas combined’. In practical terms, this means that 50% of future population growth is expected to occur in the Eastern and Midland Region, with the remaining 50% distributed between the Southern Region and the Northern and Western Region.

Context: a short overview of regional population growth

Unlike many European countries, the population of the present-day Republic reached its historical peak at approximately 6.5 million in 1841. Following the immediate effects of the Great Famine and a prolonged period of emigration, the population declined to a low point of 2.97 million in 1961. Since then, numbers have increased steadily, with particularly strong growth during the 1970s (13.1%) and the 2000s (18.6%).

National totals, however, conceal significant shifts in population distribution at the regional level.

Between 1926 and 2022, population growth was concentrated increasingly in the east of the country. The 1926 census showed a relatively balanced distribution: the Eastern and Midland Region accounted for 32% of the national population, the Southern Region 39%, and the Northern and Western Region 29%. By 2022, this balance had changed markedly. The Eastern and Midland Region contained 49% of the population, compared with 33% in the Southern Region and 18% in the Northern and Western Region (fig. 1).

A line chart titled ‘Region Percentage of National Population’ showing how three Irish regions changed as a share of the national population between 1926 and 2022. The Northern and Western Region line starts near 29% in 1926 and steadily declines to about 18% by 2022. The Southern Region line begins around 39% in 1926 and gradually decreases to about 33% by 2022. The Eastern and Midlands Region line begins near 32% and rises consistently to just under 50% by 2022
Fig.1 Region Percentage of  National Population (1926-2022)

A simple comparison between the east and the rest of the country, however, does not fully capture the scale of this shift, as the Eastern and Midland Region is also the smallest region by area. Population density therefore provides a clearer measure. In 1926, density in the Eastern and Midland Region was 1.79 times greater than that of the other two regions combined; by 2022 it was 3.73 times greater (fig. 2).

A line chart titled ‘Population Density by Region in Ireland (1926–2022)’ showing changes in people per square kilometre across Irish regions from 1926 to 2022. The Eastern and Midland Region line increases steadily from about 67 to over 170 people per km². The Southern Region line rises gradually from the mid‑30s to the high‑50s. The Northern and Western Region line moves from the high‑30s down slightly and then back up to the mid‑30s. A national average line trends upward from around 40 to roughly 75 people per km²
Fig.2 Population Density by region in Ireland (1926-2022)

The process of densification in the Eastern and Midland Region has continued at a relatively steady rate since the 1960s. By 2022, regional density was 168% above 1926 levels. In contrast, density in the Northern and Western Region was only 6.2% higher than in 1926, while the Southern Region recorded an increase of 45.4%.

These figures indicate both strong growth in the east and, historically, population decline elsewhere. Although the national population has increased continuously since 1961, the Northern and Western Region experienced decline until 1979. Rural depopulation was particularly pronounced in the century following the Famine, when the rural population fell by 68.6% (Newman, 1967, p. 12). Rates of emigration were highest in areas with low levels of urbanisation, defined as the share of population living in towns of 3,000 or more (MacEwen, 1967, p. 45). Subsequent recovery has been slow. With the exception of a brief period during the 2000s, the Northern and Western Region has recorded the lowest population growth rates of the three regions.

These regional shifts have also been accompanied by major changes in the balance between urban and rural populations. Nationally, the urban population increased from 32.3% in 1926 (CSO, 1967) to 63.7% in 2022.

Comparable data from 1956 onwards suggests that urban population growth has occurred at broadly similar rates across all three regions. While the Northern and Western Region remains the least urbanised, it has experienced the greatest relative change over this period, increasing from 14.2% urban in 1956 to 35.9% in 2022.

Between 2002 and 2022, the share of total population growth occurring in urban areas ranged from 56% to 66% in the Northern and Western Region, from 61.3% to 71.3% in the Southern Region, and from 87.7% to 88.75% in the Eastern and Midland Region.

Policy evaluation

By proposing an equal split in future regional population growth, National Policy Objective 2 reflects a long-standing ambition in Irish spatial planning to promote ‘balanced’ development. Given the current distribution of population across the three regions, however, achieving this target would maintain existing regional shares rather than significantly altering them.

More importantly, the policy overlooks the implications of absolute population numbers and their impact on density. The National Planning Framework (2025) projects approximately 470,000 additional residents in the Eastern and Midland Region and around 480,000 in the other two regions combined between 2022 and 2040.

In 2022, population density in the Eastern and Midland Region was 175.74 persons/km², compared with a combined figure of 47.11 persons/km² in the Southern and Northern and Western Regions. Although the percentage population increase would be similar in each case (approximately 18%), the effect on density would differ significantly.

Under these projections, density in the Eastern and Midland Region would increase by approximately 32.5 persons/km², reaching 208.25 persons/km². In contrast, the combined density of the Southern and Northern and Western Regions would increase by 8.67 persons/km². In absolute terms, therefore, the increase in density in the east would be 3.75 times greater, even if the 50/50 growth target were achieved.

Recent performance suggests that the target itself may also be difficult to realise. Between 2016 and 2022, the Eastern and Midland Region accounted for 54.7% of national population growth. This pattern aligns with several projections produced by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), which estimate that the region will account for between 55.6% (Bergin and Garcia-Rodriguez, 2020) and 58.5% (Morgenroth, 2018) of total population growth to 2040. These projections are also consistent with recent history: between 2002 and 2022 the Eastern and Midland Region accounted for 55% of national population growth, while between 1981 and 2002 the figure was 56.25%.

Taken together, these past and predicted trends indicate that a 50/50 distribution of population growth is neither being achieved at present nor likely to be achieved by 2040.

Regional targets also differ considerably in relation to levels of urbanisation. When city populations and growth targets are removed from the analysis (i.e Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway, and Waterford), the National Planning Framework (2018) proposes population growth equivalent to 59.1%–66.5% of the 2016 urban population in the Northern and Western Region, compared with 34.1%–36.3% in the Southern Region and 34.8%–35.5% in the Eastern and Midland Region by 2040.

These figures suggest that achieving compact urban growth – a central objective of the framework – will be significantly more challenging in the north-west. The scale of population increase required relative to existing urban populations makes such outcomes less likely than in the eastern and southern parts of the country.

In short, current regional population targets are not compatible with the strategic objective of delivering more compact urban development.

References

Bergin, A., & Garcia-Rodriguez, A. (2020). Regional demographics and structural housing demand at a county level. ESRI.

Central Statistics Office. (1967). Census of Population of Ireland 1966: Volume 1. Stationary Office.

Government of Ireland. (2025, April). National Planning Framework: First Revision. Government of Ireland.

MacEwen, A. (1967). Regional studies in Ireland and Galway City Plan. In F. Rogerson & P. O hUiginn (Eds.), Pleanáil in Eirinn / Planning in Ireland: The Planning Institute Conference (pp. 42–46). The Irish Branch of the Town Planning Institute / An Foras Forbartha.

Morgenroth, E. (2018). Prospects for Irish regions and counties: Scenarios and implications. ESRI.

National Planning Framework. (2018). Government of Ireland.

Newman, J. (1967). New Dimensions in Regional Planning: A Case Study of Ireland. An Foras Forbartha.

This new blog series is part of a wider initiative within the IGBC to expand our understanding of what a sustainable built environment might be at the neighbourhood and settlement scales. This research strand is part of a study on how different forms of urban expansion can impact the operational energy use of existing settlement types. The research is funded under Research Ireland’s Enterprise Partnership Scheme (Project ID: ESPG/2024/882) and co-funded by IGBC, the designated Enterprise Partner.